Texas Democrats and Latinos have a chance to define Texas politics for the next ten years

Can Texas Democrats live under the thumb of a Republican-controlled Texas legislature until 2023? 

Can Texas Latinos live fourteen more years being belittled and berated by Republicans – voted down from leadership positions like Sotomayor, told to change our names to fit in like Rep. Brown suggested this year, screamed at to “just go home” like Rep. Berman does every year, unable to count on getting a driver's license, more likely to be pulled over by police, family members imprisoned as quickly as ICE can build new prisons for parents and their small children?

Rome wasn't built in a day and Texas Democrats won't be able to win every election in 2010.  But Texas Democrats and Latinos could unite in 2010 and win the right to draw the maps that will control Texas politics for the next ten years.

Texas Redistricting is More Important Than the Governor's Race

Every ten years, the federal government comes out with new census numbers, and certain Texas elected officials redraw our state and federal political maps to make sure that our political districts are fair based on the new numbers.

Our Governor can conjure up hair-brained ideas, shoot off his mouth, and embarrass himself and our state for four years.  But in 2010 we will elect the people who will decide how our political boundaries are drawn in Texas for the next ten years.  

Texas' decisions about our political boundaries will have a dramatic effect on the United States Congress.  Many remember 2001-2003 when former US Congressman Tom Delay flipped the United States House of Representatives from a Democratic to Republican majority. Using a lot of fancy footwork in Texas state and local politics, he got Texas redistricted the way he wanted it.  Although he was indicted for his choices during that time, he demonstrated how to build power methodically from the local up to the federal level if one were to follow his blueprint without the indictable activity.

Texas is expected to gain about three seats in the US House of Representatives after the census.  If Democrats control the new Texas Congressional map, Texas could secure the future of the US House of Representatives for Democrats.

Winning the Right to Draw the Maps Will Not Be Easy

The Texas legislature will be charged with drawing the new political maps when they meet in 2011.  If the Texas House and Senate agree on new maps and the Governor signs the bill then the game will be over.  If the Texas House and Senate do not agree, then the state districts will be decided by the Texas Redistricting Board and the federal districts will be decided by a federal court.

The Texas Redistricting Board is composed of five elected officials: Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, and Speaker of the House.  There is a strong chance that these five people will draw our new state maps.

2010 Is The Land of Opportunity

The Texas House of Representatives and all five members of the Texas Redistricting Board are up for election in 2010.  If Democrats work hard and win the majority in the Texas House, Democrat House members will have the power to: (1) stop the Republican maps during the 2011 legislative session, and (2) elect a strong Democratic Speaker of the House which will give them one vote on the Texas Redistricting Board.

If Democrats are strategic, they could win two additional seats on the Texas Redistricting Board in 2010 - two of these four seats: Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, and Land Commissioner.  The people who sit in three of these four positions already have one foot out of office as they focus on running for US Senate after Senator Huchison leaves her position this Fall to run for Governor.

Most Texans are already Democrats. Democrats have not won a statewide office recently because many people who say they are Democrats do not vote.  However, Texas is changing. Democrats won every major urban area in the state in the 2008 elections and most young Texas voters voted Democratic.  These trends are becoming entrenched as Republicans continue to routinely insult Latinos, African Americans, progressives, moderates and libertarians.

Democrats Will Lose if They Bite Off More Than They Can Chew

An old saying in politics is “Pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered.”  All Texas Democratic donors taken together have a finite supply of funding for the 2010 elections.  If Democrats spend $5 million or $10 million on the race for Governor, that is money that will not be available to compete for the seats that will allow Democrats to control the new maps. 

Democrats might be more powerful in the long run by allocating dollars and talent so that all resources are channeled toward winning the Texas House and two of the four other seats on the Texas Redistricting Board.

Latinos Are The Secret to Success

Already today, most Texans are not White. The Latino population is growing and in ten years most Texans will be Latino. Latinos will have the potential to hold more political power than any other ethnic group in Texas in roughly ten years.  Because Latinos, as a group, have a history of staying home and declining to vote, some call this group The Sleeping Giant.

Texas Democrats can not afford to ignore The Sleeping Giant.  All groups of people are more likely to engage in the political process when they feel welcome, when they are given a voice, and when they are invited to the table to share leadership.  If democrats take these steps and move forward on issues that increase the quality of life for Latinos in Texas in a real way, The Sleeping Giant will respond.

The next ten years of Texas and national politics are up for grabs and it is yet to be seen whether Texas Democrats and Texas Latinos will unite to harness their collective power.  If they do unite, Democrats and Latinos at both the state and federal level will have the ability to hold power for a long time to come.

Originally published on Southern Shift